IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Eastern Washington
Big Sky
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.9	#132
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	79.4	#14
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.0	#123

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	1.8%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	23.8%	38.1%	22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	1.8%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.4	12.1	13.6

.500 or above	81.8%	95.2%	80.6%
.500 or above in Conference	89.7%	96.6%	89.1%
Conference Champion	32.4%	47.2%	31.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.2%	0.7%

First Four	0.3%	0.9%	0.3%
First Round	23.7%	37.8%	22.5%
Second Round	4.2%	10.0%	3.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.3%	2.9%	1.1%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 7.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 2	15 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	21	@ Oregon	L	69-84	8%
Nov 28, 2020	129	@ Washington St.	L	80-83	39%
Dec 03, 2020	266	@ Northern Arizona	W	80-75	68%
Dec 05, 2020	266	@ Northern Arizona	W	80-75	68%
Dec 09, 2020	102	@ UNLV	L	75-81	31%
Dec 15, 2020	74	@ St. Mary's	L	70-79	21%
Dec 31, 2020	252	Portland St.	W	91-80	82%
Jan 02, 2021	252	Portland St.	W	91-80	82%
Jan 07, 2021	256	@ Weber St.	W	80-75	65%
Jan 09, 2021	256	@ Weber St.	W	80-75	65%
Jan 14, 2021	192	Southern Utah	W	82-75	73%
Jan 16, 2021	192	Southern Utah	W	82-75	72%
Jan 21, 2021	166	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-75	48%
Jan 23, 2021	166	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-75	48%
Jan 28, 2021	230	Sacramento St.	W	75-66	78%
Jan 30, 2021	230	Sacramento St.	W	75-66	78%
Feb 04, 2021	322	@ Idaho	W	83-73	80%
Feb 06, 2021	322	Idaho	W	86-70	91%
Feb 11, 2021	209	@ Montana St.	W	78-76	56%
Feb 13, 2021	209	@ Montana St.	W	78-76	57%
Feb 18, 2021	140	Montana	W	79-76	62%
Feb 20, 2021	140	@ Montana	L	76-79	41%
Mar 04, 2021	299	Idaho St.	W	86-73	86%
Mar 06, 2021	299	Idaho St.	W	86-73	85%
Projected Record						15 - 9	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	1.4	3.9	6.7	8.0	6.7	4.1	1.4		32.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	2.5	5.9	6.5	4.5	1.5	0.2				21.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.6	2.9	5.2	4.1	1.6	0.3	0.0					14.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	2.4	3.8	2.8	0.6	0.0							10.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.0	3.0	1.5	0.3	0.0								7.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.5	2.1	1.1	0.1	0.0									5.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	0.9	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0										3.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.1												2.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.1													1.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0														0.9	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.3	11th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.8	2.6	4.0	5.3	7.1	8.9	10.9	12.0	12.0	11.5	9.6	6.9	4.1	1.4			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
19-1	100.0%	4.1		4.0	0.1
18-2	96.8%	6.7		5.9	0.7
17-3	84.0%	8.0		6.2	1.8	0.0
16-4	58.3%	6.7		3.9	2.4	0.3	0.0
15-5	32.5%	3.9		1.7	1.6	0.5	0.1
14-6	11.8%	1.4		0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	32.4%	32.4		23.7	7.3	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.4%		100.0%	100.0%		10.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
19-1	4.1%		99.0%	98.3%	0.7%	12.4						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.5	0.6	0.1		0.0		38.6%
18-2	6.9%		87.4%	86.5%	0.9%	13.3										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	2.4	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.9		6.8%
17-3	9.6%		65.5%	65.2%	0.3%	13.9											0.0	0.0	0.3	1.9	2.5	1.3	0.2	3.3		0.9%
16-4	11.5%		34.5%	34.4%	0.1%	14.4												0.0	0.0	0.6	1.4	1.6	0.3	7.5		0.1%
15-5	12.0%		14.4%	14.4%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	10.3
14-6	12.0%		3.1%	3.1%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	11.6
13-7	10.9%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		10.9
12-8	8.9%																							8.9
11-9	7.1%																							7.1
10-10	5.3%																							5.3
9-11	4.0%																							4.0
8-12	2.6%																							2.6
7-13	1.8%																							1.8
6-14	0.9%																							0.9
5-15	0.5%																							0.5
4-16	0.3%																							0.3
3-17	0.1%																							0.1
2-18	0.0%																							0.0
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		23.8%	23.7%	0.1%	13.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	2.4	6.9	7.1	4.4	1.2	76.2		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	3.9		2.6	42.3	25.6	24.4	5.1